Question
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
Total Forecasters274
Community Prediction
95%
(90% - 99%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 7, 2020
Closes:Dec 30, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 9, 2020
When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?
Dec 2030
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.5%
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8
Authors:
Opened:Jun 7, 2020
Closes:Dec 30, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 9, 2020
When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?
Dec 2030
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.5%
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
20.8