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48
279
forecasters
41
48 comments
279 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
4 more...
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
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95%
chance
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0 comments
18 forecasters
When will peak Deep Learning be?
Current estimate
06 Dec 2029
16 comments
438 forecasters
Brain Emulation Produces First Human AI
1%
chance
5 comments
78 forecasters
Who will develop the first AGI?
Alphabet
33.1%
Anthropic
26.4%
OpenAI
21.6%
Other
10.5%
2 others
36 comments
243 forecasters
Time between weak AGI and oracle ASI
Current estimate
30.6 months
61 comments
239 forecasters
AGI claims consciousness
58%
chance
30 comments
90 forecasters
AGI Manhattan/Apollo Project
Current estimate
14 Dec 2027
25 comments
67 forecasters
Years Between GWP Growth >25% and AGI
Current estimate
5.05 years
26 comments
49 forecasters
5Y after AGI, AI philosophical competence?
11%
chance