121 forecasters

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

May 3, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolved:

Feb 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 5, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard

OpenAI staff grapples with the company’s social media push

TechCrunch•Oct 2, 2025

AI Arms Race: Here Are The Latest Product Breakthroughs As ‘Sora 2’ Launches

Forbes•Oct 1, 2025

AI is about to change our lives forever. Luckily we have a user manual for that. | Opinion

USA Today•Sep 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?

Will there be a global-level mechanism for distribution of benefits of AI before January 1, 2030?

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?