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14 comments
121 forecasters

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
AABoyles
Opened:May 3, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Feb 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 5, 2020
Business of AI
AI Safety
Law
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard
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Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?

1% chance
32

Will there be a global-level mechanism for distribution of benefits of AI before January 1, 2030?

0.2% chance
33

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

19% chance
51
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