14 comments
121 forecasters
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 3, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Feb 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 5, 2020
Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?
1% chance
32
Will there be a global-level mechanism for distribution of benefits of AI before January 1, 2030?
0.2% chance
33
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
22% chance
47