121 forecasters

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

May 3, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolved:

Feb 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 5, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Why the Oracle-OpenAI deal caught Wall Street by surprise

TechCrunch•Sep 13, 2025

OpenAI reaches new agreement with Microsoft to change its corporate structure

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

I Wasn’t Sure I Wanted Anthropic to Pay Me for My Books—I Do Now

Wired•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch