6
61 forecasters
Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?
ResolvedYes
Carney has incentive to promote defections
Increases Likelihood
Lack of defection rumors reduces likelihood
Decreases Likelihood
Calming political situation decreases odds
Decreases Likelihood
Defector leverage with Carney reduces odds
Decreases Likelihood
Recent defections increase the base rate
Increases Likelihood