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58 forecasters

58 forecasters

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?

ResolvedNo

Average base rate of cases is 6.4%

Increases Likelihood

Past rate of 5 cases predicts 6 in 71% of years

Increases Likelihood

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9 comments62 forecasters

Israel guilty in ICJ genocide case before 2027?

16 comments33 forecasters

Will ICJ find Israel committed genocide?

0 comments6 forecasters

Will the WTO Appellate Body have any new members before 2035?

3 comments20 forecasters

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?

3 comments18 forecasters

Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty before 2029?

5 comments61 forecasters

By 2027, how many countries will courts enforce decentralized arbitration?

4 comments165 forecasters

Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?

1 comment40 forecasters

ICJ rules Russia must pay Ukraine reparations