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833 forecasters
3 comments
833 forecasters
Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
7.6%chance
Top Key Factors
U.S. men 79-80 y/o death rate
6in100
Voluntary transfer of powers has never lasted more than 24 hours
Decreases Likelihood
Serious illness could incapacitate Trump
Increases Likelihood
Assassination attempt possible cause of incapacity
Increases Likelihood
4/8 U.S. presidents deaths in office were assassinations, including only death in 80 years
Increases Likelihood