12
19 forecasters
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?
Current estimate
15 May 2031
Top Key Factors
Collapse of NATO
Hastens
Decreased NATO political cohesion and credibility
Hastens
European lagging defense industrial capacity
Hastens
A Ukrainian defeat or forced neutralization could free Russian forces
Hastens
Hybrid escalation and gray-zone testing
Hastens
Russian military regeneration and force posture
Hastens
Decreased US security commitments to Europe
Hastens