13
21 forecasters
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?
Current estimate
03 Aug 2030
Top Key Factors
Decreased NATO political cohesion and credibility
Hastens
Collapse of NATO
Hastens
European lagging defense industrial capacity
Hastens
A Ukrainian defeat or forced neutralization could free Russian forces
Hastens
Hybrid escalation and gray-zone testing
Hastens
Russian military regeneration and force posture
Hastens
Decreased US security commitments to Europe
Hastens