130
1.4k forecasters
Will the X algorithm be run by Grok before March 12, 2026?
Ambiguous
New Elon Tweet about grok
Increases Likelihood
Elon Musk is known to make hyperbolic/untrue statements
Increases Likelihood
UK and EU laws mandate safety features
Decreases Likelihood
Musk says he’s going to open-source the new X algorithm next weekVerge•Jan 11, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Grok unlikely to integrate fully quickly
Decreases Likelihood
X UK revenues drop nearly 60% in a year as content concerns spook advertisersGuardian•Jan 9, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Financial constraints limit Grok integration
Decreases Likelihood
Elon Musk Announces X’s Algorithm Open-Sourcing in 2026webpronews.com•Jan 12, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Candidate Generation stage in the pipeline, if done by LLM would increase latency and cost.
Decreases Likelihood
Implementational Hurdles and Operational Costs of a Solely Grok-Operated Algorithm
Decreases Likelihood
X’s Algorithm Is Shifting to a Grok-Powered AI Modelsocialmediatoday.com•Oct 20, 2025
Decreases Likelihood
Elon is known for delaying deadlines
Decreases Likelihood
British watchdog opens Grok AI illegal-content probelawsociety.ie•Jan 12, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Effectiveness of existing algorithms
Decreases Likelihood
UK investigates Musk's X over Grok deepfake concerns | Reutersreuters.com•Jan 12, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Additional Upgrades and Computing Capabilities
Increases Likelihood
Elon Musk's X faces bans and investigations over nonconsensual bikini imagesnpr.org•Jan 12, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Legal constraints hinder full Grok integration
Decreases Likelihood
UK targets Elon Musk’s X with fines and possible ban over Grok deepfake abusefoxnews.com•Jan 11, 2026
Decreases Likelihood