88
2k forecasters
Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?
ResolvedNo
'Robust' US Military Deployment To Gulf Ahead Of Possible Iran Strikesrferl.org•Feb 11, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Iran will likely occupy the attention of this administration atleast till the 14th March
Decreases Likelihood
Sanctions depend on peace talks
Increases Likelihood
Trump has 'greenlit' sanctions bill punishing Russia for war in Ukraine, Sen. Graham sayspbs.org•Jan 9, 2026
Increases Likelihood
EU won't 'shy away' from new sanctions on Russia if G7 deal failseuronews.com•Feb 17, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Bypassing US dollar or promoting BRICS currency triggers tariffs on BRICS exports to US to deter financial decoupling
Increases Likelihood
Trump blocks or delays sanctions despite congressional pressure
Decreases Likelihood
Trump will allow Russia sanctions bill to advance in Congress, US Senator says | Reutersreuters.com•Jan 7, 2026
Increases Likelihood
White House focuses on diplomacy over sanctions
Decreases Likelihood
Russian escalation or breakdown of peace talks
Increases Likelihood
Congress advances Russia sanctions bill
Increases Likelihood
Ukraine, Russia begin Geneva talks as Trump piles new pressure on Kyivthestar.com.my•Feb 17, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Russia signals no rush for a deal to end Ukraine war and "no deadlines" as Trump pushes for a ceasefirecbsnews.com•Feb 26, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Recent OFAC activity consists of maintence actions (removals)
Decreases Likelihood
U.S. imposing new Russia-related sanctions packages or OFAC designation rounds
1in3
McCaul, Colleagues Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Cripple Russian Oil Revenue | Congressman Michael McCaulmccaul.house.gov•Feb 11, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Peace talks hindered by additional sanctions
Increases Likelihood
comankingsley702@gmail.com
1in10
US prioritizes peace negotiations over punitive sanctions
Decreases Likelihood
Trump's posture lowers sanctions likelihood
Decreases Likelihood
Diplomatic priority over punitive leverage during Abu Dhabi trilateral talks.
Decreases Likelihood
Congress backs new sanctions through DROP Act
Increases Likelihood
Graham Statement on Russia Sanctionslgraham.senate.gov•Feb 17, 2026
Increases Likelihood
US senators visit key Ukrainian port city as they push for fresh sanctions on Russiaapnews.com•Feb 19, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Sen. Graham's sanctions bill confidence
Increases Likelihood
Trump commits to halt attacks on Kiev
Increases Likelihood