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1.3k forecasters
Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Canada
Germany
Norway
United States
Norway leads the way in 2025 winter sports world championships medalsnbcsports.com•May 25, 2025
Increases Likelihood
Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Our Predictions for 2026biathlonworld.com•Dec 31, 2025
Increases Likelihood for Norway
2026 Winter Olympics Event Schedule and Early Favorites to Win Most Medalsbleacherreport.com•Jan 10, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Norway broke gold record tally at last 2 olympics
Increases Likelihood for Norway
Consensus anchoring reduces forecast accuracy
Decreases Likelihood
Narrative overrating risks miscalibration
Decreases Likelihood for Norway
Gold-first tiebreakers crucial for Norway win
Increases Likelihood for Norway
USA's chance with multi-gold athletes
Increases Likelihood for United States
Germany's potential in sliding-sports golds
Increases Likelihood for Germany
Olympic digest: Norway breaks all-time gold-medal recorddw.com•Feb 18, 2022
Increases Likelihood for Norway
Italy's potential host advantage
Increases Likelihood for Italy