20
156 forecasters
Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?
1%chance
Top Key Factors
Trump ramps up Greenland threats and says US will intervene ‘whether they like it or not’theguardian.com•Jan 9, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Trump demands 'immediate negotiations' to acquire Greenland but 'won't use force'lemonde.fr•Jan 21, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Trump demands 'immediate negotiations' to acquire Greenland but 'won't use force'lemonde.fr•Jan 21, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Trump ramps up Greenland threats and says US will intervene ‘whether they like it or not’theguardian.com•Jan 9, 2026
Increases Likelihood