96
217 forecasters
Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?
ResolvedNo
Community often beats individuals
Decreases Likelihood
Nathan to try harder this tournament
Increases Likelihood
CP placed 4th in Bridgewater Tournament
Decreases Likelihood
Use of bots and collaboration
Increases Likelihood
Halo bias around Nathan Young's reputation
Increases Likelihood
Concern about finishing in top 6
Decreases Likelihood
Aggregation plus breadth is structural advantage
Decreases Likelihood
Nathan performs better on long timelines
Increases Likelihood