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Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?
The game of Go originated in China over 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) has traditionally challenged computers, and has made it an excellent metric for the capabilities of artifical intelligence.
The last several years have seen stunning advances by artificial Go contestants. Google's AlphaGo program has seen particular success. After sealing a stunning 4-1 victory over Go grandmaster Lee Sedol, an updated version of Alphago, playing in online forums using the account name 'Master', has swept through the Go field, defeating nearly all of the world’s top players in the course of 60 online matches without registering a single loss.
Will a human Go player beat AlphaGo (or one of its publicly revealed aliases) in one or more single tournament games, based on the currently established Go rules, during 2017?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.