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How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 15 April 2020, WHO reported more than 120 000 deaths.
The question asks: How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported by WHO (not just estimated!) before 2021?
There already exists a similar question: How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021? , but that question will resolve based on an estimate.
The questions differentiating between reports and estimates (see similar questions at the bottom) will allow us to estimate whether deaths reports are better indicator of the actual situation than cases reports, and if yes by how much.
Resolution criteria: First of all, this question is trying to address the discrepancy between reporting and the actual situation. All decisions regarding resolution should take that into account. Therefore, the question will resolve based on the number of reported deaths related to COVID-19 before 2021 by WHO. Preferably based on the last Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report for the year 2020. Specifically the number reported in the section "Situation in numbers", total globally, deaths.
The resolution may be based on some other source if this specific number is not available in this exact form. For the number to count, this question requires the number to:
- Be reported by the WHO.
- Specifically refer to the total number of deaths globally.
- Not be based on estimates, but based on case by case data collection.
Please note, that the WHO could adjust their reporting methodology if the most impacted countries decided to change their counting methodology, as they did with China. Whether deaths are confirmed by testing is not relevant. Doctors may proclaim death due to COVID-19, or suspected deaths due to COVID-19 without testing. If the WHO claims that reported deaths were caused by COVID-19 this question will accept that.
This question will resolve ambiguous if the total number of deaths globally as reported by the WHO is not available.
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