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What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

You can see historical data for this figure here.

Due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.

This question asks: For the month of May 2020, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?

Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary NFP figure for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.

A similar question was asked for April here.


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