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Will the European Parliament pass rules granting AI personhood, among other provisions?
Although no legislation regarding artificial intelligence appears to be on the immediate horizon in the US (see pertinent question), this may not be the case in the EU. Per This Guardian article (among other reports), a proposed European Parliament motion would include a number of provisions including a call to:
Create a European agency for robotics and AI,
Consider granting highly capable AIs and robots "personhood" status (akin to corporate personhood),
Create an advisory code of conduct for AI and robotic engineers,
Create a mandatory insurance scheme to cover damages done by autonomous agents.
The text of the proposal can be found here. According to the above Guardian article,
The full house of the European Parliament will vote on the draft proposals in February, which will need to be approved by absolute majority.
Will a resolution substantially resembling this proposed resolution be passed by the European parliament in 2017?
Resolution is positive if a majority vote of the European parliament is taken in favor of this or a very similar proposal in by end of 2017.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.