Question
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
Total Forecasters68
Community Prediction
26 Jun 2026
(05 Jul 2025 - 07 Jun 2028)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 05 Jul 2025 | — |
| median | 26 Jun 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 07 Jun 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 17.9% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 3, 2020
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 3, 2020
