The experts predictions on Lighting Round Tournament 1 are out. There are some concerns that Metaculus have been biased downwards and overconfident in the predictions from LRT1. Let's see if we can evaluate that in the hindsight and possibly improve before the next round.

Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 1-4 questions resolving before the 10th of May?

If Metaculus predictions fall outside the 5-95% CI for more questions than the experts for LRT1 2-4 then the experts win for being correctly less confident overall.

Otherwise the points will be counted. Experts will be said to have beaten Metaculus and the question will resolve positive if they get 3 or 4 points, otherwise it will resolve negative.

For the question LRT1.1 the point will go to experts if the question resolves outside the range (900K, 950K], otherwise it will go to Metaculus.

For LRT1 questions 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 experts will be awarded a point if their 50th percentile prediction is closer to the resolution than the Metaculus 50th percentile as reported in COVID19-Survey10-2020_04_22.

The question will resolve ambiguous if one of the relevant LRT1 questions resolves ambiguous.