Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.

From Wikipedia:

Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.


Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.

Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.

Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

Resolution details:

  • "the last Metaculus question resolution" is here defined as either:

    • Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution.
    • The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good.
  • When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.

  • If Metaculus evolves so much that either "resolution" or "Metaculus question" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.

  • If the concepts of "when", "will", "last" or "occur" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to NASA).


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.