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16 comments
242 forecasters

In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?

Latest estimate
Dec 2031
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:Jan 22, 2017
Closed:Jan 1, 2020
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 24, 2017
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GM will introduce ‘eyes-off’ driving in 2028
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GM stuns with most advanced self-driving cars yet that blow Tesla out of the water
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Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

94% chance
48

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

23 Jun 2028
(06 Oct 2026 - Dec 2030)
23 Jun 2028
(06 Oct 2026 - Dec 2030)
120 forecasters

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

23.8%
(15.5 - 35)
23.8%
(15.5 - 35)
75 forecasters
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