16 comments
242 forecasters
In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?
Latest estimate
Dec 2031
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2017
Closed:Jan 1, 2020
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 24, 2017
Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?
94% chance
48
When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?
23 Jun 2028
(06 Oct 2026 - Dec 2030)
23 Jun 2028
(06 Oct 2026 - Dec 2030)
120 forecasters
What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?
23.8%
(15.5 - 35)
23.8%
(15.5 - 35)
75 forecasters