173
490 forecasters
Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?
ResolvedYes
Iran skeptical about diplomatic engagement
Decreases Likelihood
Existential war for Iran's leadership
Decreases Likelihood
Asymmetric denial of the Strait of Hormuz
Decreases Likelihood
Pentagon preparing for prolonged conflict
Decreases Likelihood
The Iranian "rally-around-the-flag" effect
Decreases Likelihood
Israel’s regime-change objectives
Decreases Likelihood
Exclusive: Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials saysemafor.com•Mar 14, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurancerusi.org•Mar 25, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Current chance for ceasefire is near zero
Decreases Likelihood
Ceasefire likelihood might change by May
Increases Likelihood
US and Israel may run out of military targets
Increases Likelihood
Putin response with more aggressive activity in Ukraine or/and neighboring states.
Increases Likelihood
News and officials outline varying future timelines
Increases Uncertainty