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LRT 2.2 All US infections April 27


LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?

The question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.

This question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).

If fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.

The Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.

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