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17 comments
65 forecasters

How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?

community
47.1
result
21.4
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Eber
Opened:May 10, 2020
Closes:Jul 1, 2023
Resolved:Aug 11, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:May 12, 2020
Social Sciences
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Study of Ultramarathon Runners Suggests There's a Fundamental Limit to Human Metabolism
Scientific American•Oct 21, 2025
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By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?

58% chance
104

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

Jun 2062
(Feb 2056 - 2086)
Jun 2062
(Feb 2056 - 2086)
72 forecasters

When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?

May 2054
(May 2038 - 2134)
May 2054
(May 2038 - 2134)
142 forecasters
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