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25+ Year Lifespan Increase Discovery by 2067


In 2017, Open Philanthropy conducted an investigation on the mechanisms of aging. A section of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.

By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?

This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*

By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).

The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).

Metaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.


*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).

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