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Community Prediction beats MP in LRT 2


Metaculus is participating in COVID-19 Expert Surveys, in collaboration with researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Each week we will be launching up to 8 questions in which the community will have 30 hours to lock in their predictions.

Researchers will concurrently distribute the same questions to some of the worlds leading infectious disease experts.

Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round (LRT2)?

This question resolves positively if the average log score for all continuous questions in the second round that resolve unambiguously is higher for the community prediction than for the Metaculus prediction, according to our Track record.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.