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Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange?
The development of the new IEX exchange was a central theme in Michael Lewis' controversial 2014 book Flash Boys, which describes aspects of computerized high-frequency trading of stocks.
A stated aim of the IEX Exchange is to provide a level playing field for all market participants through the implementation of a 350 microsecond delay between order submission and execution.
IEX has been operating as an Alternative Trading System since October 2013. In September 2015, it applied to the U.S. Securities Exchange Commision for approval to operate as a Registered Exchange. The application generated a large amount of public comment, with arguments being placed both in favor of and against IEX's plans.
The SEC was scheduled to issue a decision statement on IEX's application on Dec. 21st, 2015. On Friday December 18th, however, it announced that IEX has approved a delay until next March 21st for a final decision.
On March 21, 2016, will the SEC grant approval for IEX to operate as a Registered Securities Exchange? In order for the question to be resolved as yes, any amended version of IEX's application must retain the critical feature in which the 350 microsecond delay is placed between order submissions and executions.
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Metaculus help: Predicting
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.