5
29 forecasters
5 comments
29 forecasters
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?
Forecasts
Top Key Factors
Capabilities stagnation =/= cost stagnation: Opus 4.6 equivalent could run cheap for hours in a few years
Less %
Potential economic crashes
Increases Uncertainty
Normal workforce trends (especially demographics) expected in this conditional world
Less %
Large immigrant influx unlikely
Less %
Elicitation improvements get more capability from current models
Less %