35 forecasters

What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?

Forecasts

Top Key Factors

Potential economic crashes

Increases Uncertainty

Capabilities stagnation =/= cost stagnation: Opus 4.6 equivalent could run cheap for hours in a few years

Less %

Normal workforce trends (especially demographics) expected in this conditional world

Less %

Time to absorb AI transition

More %

Technology asset repricing risk

Less %

Large immigrant influx unlikely

Less %

Elicitation improvements get more capability from current models

Less %

Total U.S. employment growth

Projection

3.1 percent By

2034