13 comments
73 forecasters
Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?
30%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 30% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 30, 2020
Closes:Jul 31, 2020
Resolved:Dec 31, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:May 1, 2020
Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?
25% chance
32
If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?
587 deaths
(86.1 - 3170)
587 deaths
(86.1 - 3170)
8 forecasters
Will any U.S. state experience a permanent population decline of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
5% chance
23