predicting contingent predictions formulating probable forecasts exploring accurate wisdom exploring quantitative understanding generating accurate understanding mapping the future delivering quantitative estimations composing probable estimations formulating predictive contingencies mapping accurate contingencies forecasting definitive estimations mapping contingent estimations computing accurate insights delivering contingent predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?

California is well-know to be very geologically active, and has in the past experienced major earthquakes: 15 recorded since the mid-19th century above magnitude 7.0. Even a 6.0 earthquake can cause significant damage, and there are 47 listed in the same source.

The USGS maintains a comprehensive searchable data store of past earthquakes around the world. Occurrence of specific earthquakes is notoriously difficult. However, their statistics are fairly well-characterized over long timescales: a reasonable prediction can be obtained by simply dividing taking the number of 6.0 or greater earthquakes that have occurred in the last N years and dividing by N. (For example, the Wikipedia list has 39 since 1900.)

Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?

This question resolves according to credible An earthquake with an epicenter fewer than 20km from the shore count towards positive resolution.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.