3 comments
41 forecasters
Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?
80%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 80% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Sep 1, 2020
Resolved:Jul 8, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2020
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.3% chance
117
How many people will take the EA survey in 2030?
3719 people
(2197 - 6541)
3719 people
(2197 - 6541)
26 forecasters
Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?
28% chance
25