generating calibrated forecasts composing precise contingencies predicting quantitative predictions forecasting probable wisdom exploring quantitative forecasts mapping the future calculating critical forecasts formulating definitive understanding modeling calibrated predictions predicting definitive understanding computing definitive contingencies composing probable futures assembling critical estimations exploring contingent wisdom
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2020 is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020.

Will EA Global: London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?

The question resolves negative if the EA Global London 2020 takes place on the originally scheduled physical location at the scheduled dates. If the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or the venue is moved away from London (including moved to an online virtual conference), and a stated reason for the change is COVID-19 (as judged by Metaculus), it resolves positive.

Note: See the related previous prediction for EA Global San Francisco

Categories: Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19), Effective Altruism

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.