8
46 forecasters
8 comments
46 forecasters
Will any national military or state-affiliated armed forces deploy at least 5,000 quadruped robots in an active conflict zone before 2031?
40%chance
Top Key Factors
5,000 quadrupeds is not a lot, 10s of thousands of UGVs are already deployed
Increases Likelihood
Forbes: Ukraine’s robot dogs failed the war test – they couldn’t hide from Russians. Humanoid robots are up nexteuromaidanpress.com•Apr 18, 2025
Decreases Likelihood
Quadruped production is growing massively, cumulatively doubling every 10 months (currently 80k total)
Increases Likelihood
Quadrupeds struggle in muddy terrain.
Decreases Likelihood
5,000 quadrupeds is not a lot, 10s of thousands of UGVs are already deployed
Increases Likelihood
Forbes: Ukraine’s robot dogs failed the war test – they couldn’t hide from Russians. Humanoid robots are up nexteuromaidanpress.com•Apr 18, 2025
Decreases Likelihood
Quadruped production is growing massively, cumulatively doubling every 10 months (currently 80k total)
Increases Likelihood
Quadrupeds struggle in muddy terrain.
Decreases Likelihood