6
15 forecasters
Will the United States support Argentine claims of sovereignty over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands before 2030?
24%chance
6% this week
Top Key Factors
Javier Milei: ‘winds of change’ support Argentina’s claim to Falkland Islandstheguardian.com•Sep 4, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Trump says US position on Falklands 'one of many' under reviewbbc.co.uk•Sep 1, 2026
Increases Likelihood
US considers new ultimatum to UK over Falklandsindependent.co.uk•Aug 29, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Javier Milei: ‘winds of change’ support Argentina’s claim to Falkland Islandstheguardian.com•Sep 4, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Trump says US position on Falklands 'one of many' under reviewbbc.co.uk•Sep 1, 2026
Increases Likelihood
US considers new ultimatum to UK over Falklandsindependent.co.uk•Aug 29, 2026
Increases Likelihood