forecasting critical understanding formulating predictive predictions delivering critical wisdom delivering accurate understanding aggregating critical estimations mapping the future delivering predictive understanding modeling contingent understanding exploring probable futures delivering calibrated futures delivering quantitative understanding generating precise forecasts modeling definitive predictions forecasting calibrated futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?

Set in 2014, the world record for a standard 26.2 marathon is 2:02:57. Looking to push the limits of human performance, Nike announced in December 2016 a concerted effort, called Breaking2, to complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017. The Oregon company enlisted the help of three of the world's best marathoners: Eritrean Zersenay Tadese, Ethiopian Lelisa Desisa, and Kenyan Eliud Kipchoge. As of this writing, the date of the attempt had not yet been announced.

The world-record marathon time is already a major human achievement, and pushing against the two-hour mark requires shaving off an additional 3% off the world-record time. Nike is engineering the perfect conditions for a marathon, including a cool track, aerodynamic clothing, and the perfect nutrition and training regimen.

Despite all Nike can do, however, they may be limited by the upper limits of what the body is capable of. A 1991 paper hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58.

Will one of Nike's Breaking2 runners complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017?

This question will resolve as positive if Nike reports, and an independent body verifies, that a runner completed a 26.2 mile marathon course in less than two hours on or before Dec. 31, 2017.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.