59
221 forecasters
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?
ResolvedNo
Rare human-to-human transmission limits spread
Decreases Likelihood
Transcript - Update on CDC’s Hantavirus Response – 6/24/26cdc.gov•Jun 24, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing – 24 June 2026who.int•Jun 30, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Two high-risk clusters identified
Increases Likelihood
2018-2019 Epuyen outbreak from a 90 minute party
Increases Likelihood
Widow exposed many on St. Helena
Increases Likelihood
"Linked" cases could pre-date MV Hondius outbreak to resolve this question.
Increases Likelihood
Rodents primary transmission mode in rural settings
Decreases Likelihood
Delayed passenger notification increases risk
Increases Likelihood