217 forecasters

Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?

0.1%chance

Top Key Factors

Rare human-to-human transmission limits spread

Decreases Likelihood

Two high-risk clusters identified

Increases Likelihood

Widow exposed many on St. Helena

Increases Likelihood

Delayed passenger notification increases risk

Increases Likelihood

"Linked" cases could pre-date MV Hondius outbreak to resolve this question.

Increases Likelihood

2018-2019 Epuyen outbreak from a 90 minute party

Increases Likelihood

Rodents primary transmission mode in rural settings

Decreases Likelihood