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Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?
The terms of Great Britain's exit ("Brexit") from the European Union state that once the nation delivers notice of intent to leave the union, a two-year negotiation period commences for the nation to redefine its relationship with the remaining member states. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets forth the exit terms.
Britain's prime minister, Theresa May, has signaled intent to trigger Article 50 by March 2017. Although some British officials have called for a transitional period of exit lasting longer than two years, the nation's chief negotiator has set his own negotiation completion target of October 2018 to allow time for the deal to be ratified by the targeted exit date, March 2019.
Will Brexit negotiations be completed and ratified before the end of March 2019?
This question will resolve as positive if a credible news outlet reports that the terms of Britain's exit from the European Union have been ratified on or before March 31, 2019, and that the exit will occur on or before that date, with no transitional periods or extensions of negotiations requested.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.