50
157 forecasters
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?
ResolvedYes
What to know about the demining and escort mission that US allies want for the Strait of Hormuz - The Sumter Itemtheitem.com•Jun 16, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is "safe, secure and pristine." Shipping companies aren't convinced.cbsnews.com•Jun 16, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Deal reached to end war and reopen strait
Increases Likelihood
Opening for demining delays normal traffic
Decreases Likelihood
Shipping in Strait of Hormuz at a standstill despite US-Iran ceasefirealjazeera.com•Jun 14, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Iran uses Strait closure as leverage
Decreases Likelihood
UN says it will evacuate sailors stranded in Strait of Hormuz, as Rubio warns against tollsbbc.com•Jun 23, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Iran latest: Strait of Hormuz closes as Tehran and accuses US and Israel of violating ceasefire dealbbc.com•Jun 20, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
High war-risk insurance costs persist
Decreases Likelihood