7
54 forecasters
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?
68%chance
4% today
Top Key Factors
Opening for demining delays normal traffic
Decreases Likelihood
Deal reached to end war and reopen strait
Increases Likelihood
Iran uses Strait closure as leverage
Decreases Likelihood
Shipping in Strait of Hormuz at a standstill despite US-Iran ceasefirealjazeera.com•Jun 14, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
High war-risk insurance costs persist
Decreases Likelihood
Deal reached to end war and reopen strait
Increases Likelihood
Opening for demining delays normal traffic
Decreases Likelihood
Shipping in Strait of Hormuz at a standstill despite US-Iran ceasefirealjazeera.com•Jun 14, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Iran uses Strait closure as leverage
Decreases Likelihood
High war-risk insurance costs persist
Decreases Likelihood