forecasting definitive futures aggregating accurate forecasts predicting accurate contingencies exploring quantitative futures assembling critical wisdom mapping the future aggregating intelligent understanding crowdsourcing precise understanding formulating intelligent understanding calculating precise wisdom forecasting accurate insights computing critical contingencies composing critical wisdom formulating contingent futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Tunnel vs. Wall

In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that

Am going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...

It shall be called "The Boring Company"...

I am really going to do this.

Per early-2017 reports, Musk has now acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology. The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.

This is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are very preliminary plans, but no proposal submitted to congress.

In a separate question we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:

By start of 2025, will there be more Tunnel than Wall?

Tunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per the associated question – note in particular that fence does not count.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus help is ON

Look for help buttons () scattered around the site. Clicking on them should give you some contextual information on how that part of the site works.

There's also plenty of information available at the FAQ. If you have any further questions or feedback don't hesitate to contact us at

Metaculus help is OFF

You can turn help on again at any point by clicking on the button in the upper-right corner of the screen.