Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Trumps' taxes be made public by 2020?
Throughout his campaign, and now in the beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump has refused to make public his tax returns. Every elected president since Richard Nixon has done so, and although Trump has claimed that he is unable to release his returns because of an ongoing audit, the IRS and other experts have repeatedly said that there is no restriction preventing their release.
The tax returns would address several key points of concern:
His actual net worth, which has been reported as $3.7B and self-reported as upwards of $10B. Trump's success and wealth are cornerstones of his brand, although his true net worth is currently unknown.
The amount of tax he pays. Documents released in 2016 showed that he paid no taxes in 1995 and may not have for the following 18 years.
The extent of his foreign holdings, which could become conflicts of interest as he interacts with governments in his official role as president. Making his tax returns public would help sort out the ways Trump could stand to gain personally from foreign policies. Much has been said and written about President Trump's possible violation of the Constitution's Emoluments clause, which prohibits public officials from receiving gifts or payments from other governments. One of the ways to resolve such concerns is through Trump's tax returns.
In particular, the returns would detail Trump's holdings in Russia. The president's relationship with Russia has been under scrutiny since the campaign.
Although President Trump has continued to refuse calls to release his returns, mechanisms are in place to require their release. Congress can subpoena the records from the IRS, which would then become public information. Such a subpoena could be part of an investigation into any of the above issues, particularly an investigation into dealings with Russia.
The stakes are high, and the information in the tax returns could be politically devastating to the president, if it indeed contains proof of unethical behavior or evidence contradicting the president's assertions of no wrongdoing in foreign dealings. One writer has suggested that a subpoena of Trump's tax information would trigger the president's resignation, as he would rather vacate the office than see his tax returns come to light.
Will Donald Trump's tax returns become public information during his current term as president?
This question will resolve as positive if at least one year's worth of Donald Trump's tax returns from within the previous ten years becomes public information by any means (and such information is confirmed as genuine by credible sources) on or before Jan. 20, 2021.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.