generating definitive wisdom predicting accurate predictions exploring predictive predictions calculating predictive insights mapping accurate estimations mapping the future predicting definitive forecasts assembling contingent forecasts delivering accurate forecasts predicting predictive wisdom modeling accurate insights calculating critical predictions mapping predictive estimations calculating critical predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?

Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM.

About two thirds of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants.

Dates of note

  • For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say Australia should stop burning coal by 2030.

  • The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048.

  • The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life).

  • This year, the federal government funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant.

  • The openCEM model of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however.


The question resolves positively if either of the following:

  • No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks

  • Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period

In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.