FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction (free)
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
  • Unmake your prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Your essay is now in Draft mode

    Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

    AI Beats Professional Go Players

    Created by Adrian on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    The game of Go originated in China more than 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) make it an excellent metric for the capabilities of artifical intelligence. Many computer Go players have been developed, and the University of Electro-Communications (UEC) in Japan has held annual cups that pit AI vs. AI in games of Go to determine the strongest computer player. A five-year agreement was made in 2012 to grant the AI victors of the UEC cup additional matches against highly ranked human Go professionals. These are called Densei-sen, or "electric Sage battles," made to test the AI's effectiveness against human opponents.

    The Crazy Stone go engine, created by Rémi Coulom, beat Go Sensei Norimoto Yoda in the second Densei-sen competition at the UEC. However, Crazy Stone was granted an extremely generous handicap of a four-stone advantage at the start. Many other computer Go players exist, including ones in development by AI giants like Facebook and Google DeepMind, but none have beaten a professionally ranked human player without a handicap.

    The next UEC cup is in March 2016 and many prominent AI teams have already registered, including Crazy Stone and Facebook AI's own darkforest. Additionally, Google's Demis Hassabis has implied a new breakthrough in Go artificial intelligence. With Computer Go getting more and more powerful, an AI player beating a Go master is a real possibility.

    This question is positively resolved if, in 2016, an AI with no handicap beats a professional human player in an official game of Go.

    Categories:
    Technological Advances
    Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning
    Computing – Artificial Intelligence
    Computing – AI – Human vs AI gaming

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    This question is not yet open for predictions.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

    Metaculus help: Predicting

    Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

    The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

    The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list