2
63 forecasters
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Labour-led
National-led
None before January
Other
Top Key Factors
Coalition arithmetic remains uncertain
Increases Uncertainty
Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: In September National-led Government increases lead over Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (52% vs. 41.5%) - Roy Morgan Researchroymorgan.com•Oct 12, 2026
Increases Likelihood
National–ACT–NZ First projected majority
Increases Likelihood for National-led
Coalition arithmetic remains uncertain
Increases Uncertainty
Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: In September National-led Government increases lead over Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (52% vs. 41.5%) - Roy Morgan Researchroymorgan.com•Oct 12, 2026
Increases Likelihood
National–ACT–NZ First projected majority
Increases Likelihood for National-led