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When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?
On March 31, 2016, Elon Musk unveiled the Model 3 vehicle and opened preorders. It was announced that 115,000 cars had been reserved prior to the unveiling event (In this video around the 20 min mark.)
Musk set an optimistic production start time of July, but said that would be almost impossible due to the number of suppliers that have to all be on time.
When will the first 115,000 Model 3s be delivered?
Due to production scheduling and the pushback of the dual motor version of the vehicle to 2018, it is unlikely that the first 115,000 cars delivered will be the first 115,000 reservations, so the resolution must be based on the number of cars delivered, not when the first 115,000 reservations are fulfilled. Date may be reported by Tesla (or representatives, e.g. Musk on Twitter]), or would be linearly interpolated using the 2 bounding quarterly reports: Tesla should report the number of Model 3s delivered on each quarterly report. (For example: if in one quarter they report 100,000 vehicles total delivered, and the next quarter they report 130,000 vehicles total delivered, the resolution date should be set halfway between the ends of the two quarters.)
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.