Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?


In the United Kingdom, the singles which are top of the UK singles chart in the week in which Christmas day falls are known as “Christmas number ones”. Reality television winners, particularly of the show “The X-Factor”, have frequently claimed the number one spot. From the years 2005-2008 inclusive, every artist with a Christmas no. 1 single had won the X-Factor. This prompted an ultimately successful campaign to buy enough copies of Rage Against the Machine’s “Killing in the Name” to get it to number 1 instead in 2009. More recently, X-Factor winners, as well as professional musicians, have had competition from other not-entirely serious entrants. In both 2018 and 2019, the Christmas no.1 spot went to a parody song about sausage rolls produced by british youtuber “Ladbaby”.

This question asks: Will the UK’s “Christmas number 1” in the year 2020 be performed by an artist who has previously won a reality television show?

  • Positive resolution occurs if the artist (who could be a group or solo artist) who releases 2020’s Christmas number 1, as determined by, has previously been announced as the winner of a reality television show. If an otherwise qualifying artist is listed as “featuring” another performer, resolution will be positive.

  • If an otherwise qualifying artist is one of several performers given equal credit, for example, if the “artist” space reads “Artist A & Artist B”, negative resolution will occur, unless all such artists are reality TV winners. If an otherwise qualifying artist is credited as “featuring” on the track of a performer who does not qualify, resolution will be negative.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.