Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?

Question

TikTok is a social media platform designed around the sharing of short video clips, often set to music. Having only launched worldwide in August 2018, it has already been downloaded a billion times by February 2019, and was the most downloaded app in the App store in both 2018 and 2019. The user who, at the time of writing, has the most followers on the platform is the 16 year old American Charli D’Amelio.

The question asks: Will, at any point before Jan 1 2021, a user on the TikTok platform have over 100,000,000 followers?

Resolution is by the TikTok platform itself, although a regularly updated list of the most-followed accounts on the platform is kept on wikipedia.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.