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Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?

TikTok is a social media platform designed around the sharing of short video clips, often set to music. Having only launched worldwide in August 2018, it has already been downloaded a billion times by February 2019, and was the most downloaded app in the App store in both 2018 and 2019. The user who, at the time of writing, has the most followers on the platform is the 16 year old American Charli D’Amelio.

The question asks: Will, at any point before Jan 1 2021, a user on the TikTok platform have over 100,000,000 followers?

Resolution is by the TikTok platform itself, although a regularly updated list of the most-followed accounts on the platform is kept on wikipedia.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.


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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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